NFL betting market watch: Pro bettors divided on 49ers-Cowboys

view original post

Sharp money on the 49ers-Cowboys playoff game showed up early in the week — on both teams.

The Cowboys opened as 3-point favorites over the 49ers on Sunday at Circa Sports, a Las Vegas-based sportsbook known to cater to sharp bettors. On Monday night, a respected bettor took under the 49ers +3 (-110) for the limit. A day later, a second equally respected bettor took the Cowboys +3 (even) for the limit.

Chris Bennett, who manages NFL odds for Circa Sports, said it’s not necessarily unusual for two influential bettors to be on opposite of sides of a game, but that it usually happens at different lines. For both bettors to lay and take three on 49ers-Cowboys, even at the slightly adjusted prices (-110 and even) … it doesn’t happen often.

“We respect both of these bettors very much,” Bennett said Wednesday.

Bennett said the Raiders and under in Eagles-Buccaneers also had attracted early interest from bettors. The Raiders, after opening as 6.5-point road underdogs to the Bengals, had been down to 5.5 as of Wednesday. The Eagles-Buccaneers total had dropped from 48.5 to 46. Wind is in the forecast in Tampa.

The largest bets reported by Caesars Sportsbook on Wednesday were:

• $110,000 on under 47 Steelers-Chiefs
• $100,000 on Eagles money line +330
• $110,000 on under 50.5 Cardinals-Rams


NFL market watch

Here is our weekly look at how the NFL betting market is shaping up leading into the weekend.

For consistency, lines, totals and betting percentages are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. The betting percentages are not specific to the current line or total and are designed to provide a snapshot of the early action. The look-ahead lines were offered in advance of the previous week’s games. Most numbers were reopened Sunday night.

Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals

Open: Bengals -6, 48.5
Wednesday: Bengals -5.5, 48.5
Spread action: 54% of the bets are on the Bengals, but 57% of the money wagered is on the Raiders.
Total action: 67% of the bets and 63% of the money wagered is on the over.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Open: Bills -4.5, 43.5
Wednesday: Bills -5.5, 48.5
Spread action: 74% of the bets and 68% of the money wagered is on the Bills.
Total action: 59% of the bets are on the under, but 71% of the money wagered is on the over.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Open: Buccaneers -9, 49
Wednesday: Buccaneers -8.5, 47
Spread action: 68% of the bets and 65% of the money wagered is on the Buccaneers.
Total action: 58% of the bets are on the over, but 82% of the money wagered is on the under.

Note: “The Eagles only have one win over a team with a winning record, but they have played some close games against good teams,” Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading for Caesars Sportsbook, said in a release. “They lost by six to Tampa and also were close against the 49ers and Chargers.”

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys

Open: Cowboys -3 (-120), 50
Wednesday: Cowboys -3, 51
Spread action: 62% of the bets and 51% of the money wagered is on the Cowboys.
Total action: 57% of the bets and 85% of the money wagered is on the over.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs

Open: Chiefs -13, 47
Wednesday: Chiefs -12.5, 46.5
Spread action: 54% of the bets are on the Bengals, but 57% of the money wagered is on the Raiders.
Total action: 67% of the bets and 63% of the money wagered is on the over.

Note: “I made this line Chiefs -11.5,” Pullen said. “So it’s not a surprise to me that the spread has dropped, but it can go higher again. Since it’s the Sunday night game, this line could go back up depending on earlier results. If all the favorites come in and you’re staring at massive liability, you might see the game go back up. The Steelers are kind of fortunate to be in this position, but I don’t think they have the public trust.”

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

Open: Rams -4.5, 50.5
Wednesday: Rams -4, 49.5
Spread action: 52% of the bets are on the Rams, but 54% of the money wagered is on the Cardinals.
Total action: 72% of the bets are on the under, but 92% of the money wagered is on the under.